Toplines: April 2024 Times/Siena Poll of Registered Voters Nationwide

April 13, 2024

Results of a nationwide New York Times/Siena College poll conducted among 1,059 registered voters from April 7 to 11, 2024.

Toplines | Registered Voter Cross-Tabs | Likely Electorate Cross-Tabs

Do you think the United States is on the right track, or is it headed in the wrong direction?

[IF NEEDED: Based on anything you may have seen or heard, if you had to pick, would you say right track or wrong direction?]

Date	Pop.	Right track	Wrong direction	[VOLUNTEERED] Don't know /Refused
Apr. 7-11, 2024	R.V.	25%	64%	11%
Feb. 25-28, 2024	R.V.	24	65	11
July 23-27, 2023	R.V.	23	65	13
Oct. 9-12, 2022	R.V.	24	62	14
Sept. 6-14, 2022	R.V.	27	60	13
July 5-7, 2022	R.V.	13	77	10
Sept. 22-24, 2020	R.V.	35	56	10
June 17-22, 2020	R.V.	31	58	11
Oct. 28-Nov. 1, 2016 Times/CBS	Adults	35	61	3
July 8-12, 2016 Times/CBS	Adults	26	69	5
May 13-17, 2016 Times/CBS	Adults	30	63	7
Note: Before 2020, the question wording was, “Do you feel things in this country are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track?”

Thinking ahead to the presidential general election, are you almost certain that you will vote, very likely to vote, somewhat likely to vote, not very likely to vote or not at all likely to vote?

Date:	Apr. 7-11, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	1,059
Almost certain		57%
Very likely		25%
Somewhat likely		7%
Not very likely		3%
Not at all likely		6%
[VOL] Already voted		0%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		1%

(Includes leaners) If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:

Date	Pop.	Joe Biden, the Democrat	Donald Trump, the Republican	[VOL] Don't know /Refused
Apr. 7-11, 2024	R.V.	45%	46%	8%
Feb. 25-28, 2024	R.V.	43	48	10
Dec. 10-14, 2023	R.V.	44	46	9

(Without leaners) If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:

[READ LIST]

[IF NEEDED: If you had to decide today, are you leaning toward one candidate?]

Date	Pop.	Joe Biden, the Democrat	Donald Trump, the Republican	[VOL] Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the independent	[VOL] Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate	[VOL] Cornel West, the independent	[VOL] Another candidate	[VOL] Not going to vote /wouldn't vote if those were the choices	[VOL] Don't know /Refused
Apr. 7-11, 2024	R.V.	40%	42%	2%	<.5%	<.5%	2%	7%	6%
Feb. 25-28, 2024	R.V.	37	44				5	7	7
Dec. 10-14, 2023	R.V.	39	41				7	5	7
July 23-27, 2023	R.V.	43	43				4	6	4
Oct. 9-12, 2022	R.V.	42	43				5	6	4
Sept. 6-14, 2022	R.V.	45	42				6	4	4
July 5-7, 2022	R.V.	44	41				4	6	4

(If not supporting Trump or Biden) If you had to decide between the two today, would you lean more toward:

Date:	Apr. 7-11, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	193
Joe Biden, the Democrat		26%
Donald Trump, the Republican		27%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		47%

(Recoded to age) In what year were you born?

Date:	Apr. 7-11, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	1,059
18-29		16%
30-44		23%
45-64		31%
65+		25%
Refused		5%

What is the highest educational level that you have completed?

[READ LIST]

Date:	Apr. 7-11, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	1,059
Grade school		4%
High school		26%
Vocational or trade school		5%
Some college, no degree		17%
Associate’s degree		9%
Bachelor's degree		23%
Graduate or professional degree		14%
[VOL] Refused		1%

Would you consider yourself:

[READ LIST]

[IF biracial or multi racial ask: What races would that be?]

Date:	Apr. 7-11, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	1,059
White		64%
Hispanic or Latino		12%
Black or African American		11%
Asian		3%
American Indian or Alaska Native		<1%
Middle Eastern or North African		<1%
Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander		<1%
[VOL] Some other race (specify)		2%
[VOL] More than one race		2%
[VOL] Refused		4%

Note: Questions after this point are reported only among respondents who completed the entire questionnaire.

Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an independent or a member of another party?

Date:	Apr. 7-11, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	875
Democrat		32%
Republican		26%
Independent		32%
Another party		4%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		6%

Who did you vote for in the 2020 presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, or did you not vote?

Date:	Apr. 7-11, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	875
Donald Trump		36%
Joe Biden		43%
I did not vote		16%
[VOL] Someone else		2%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		3%

(Excluding "I did not vote") Who did you vote for in the 2020 presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, or did you not vote?

Date:	Apr. 7-11, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	755
Donald Trump		43%
Joe Biden		51%
[VOL] Someone else		3%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		3%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?

FOLLOW UP: Is that strongly or somewhat?

Date	Pop.	Strongly approve	Somewhat approve	Somewhat disapprove	Strongly disapprove	[VOL] Don't know /Refused
Apr. 7-11, 2024	R.V.	16%	22%	12%	47%	3%
Feb. 25-28, 2024	R.V.	17	19	14	47	3
Dec. 10-14, 2023	R.V.	12	25	15	43	6
July 23-27, 2023	R.V.	18	21	12	42	7
Oct. 9-12, 2022	R.V.	16	22	15	42	6
Sept. 6-14, 2022	R.V.	18	23	9	44	5
July 5-7, 2022	R.V.	13	20	15	45	6

Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump.

Date	Pop.	Very favorable	Somewhat favorable	Somewhat unfavorable	Very unfavorable	[VOL] Have not heard of	[VOL] Don't know /Refused
Apr. 7-11, 2024	R.V.	20%	23%	12%	43%	<.5%	2%
Feb. 25-28, 2024	R.V.	22	21	11	43	0	2
Dec. 10-14, 2023	R.V.	24	19	12	43	<.5	3
July 23-27, 2023	R.V.	21	20	11	44	0	4
Oct. 9-12, 2022	R.V.	22	20	10	42	<.5	5
Sept. 6-14, 2022	R.V.	23	20	9	44	<.5	3
July 5-7, 2022	R.V.	21	18	8	49		3
Oct. 15-18, 2020	R.V.	32	12	7	46		3
Sept. 22-24, 2020	R.V.	31	13	7	46		3
June 17-22, 2020	R.V.	27	13	6	50		4

Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of Joe Biden.

Date	Pop.	Very favorable	Somewhat favorable	Somewhat unfavorable	Very unfavorable	[VOL] Have not heard of	[VOL] Don't know /Refused
Apr. 7-11, 2024	R.V.	15%	25%	15%	41%	<.5%	3%
Feb. 25-28, 2024	R.V.	14	24	17	42	0	3
Dec. 10-14, 2023	R.V.	13	26	20	37	0	4
July 23-27, 2023	R.V.	17	26	16	38	<.5	3
Sept. 6-14, 2022	R.V.	20	27	11	40	<.5	3
July 5-7, 2022	R.V.	14	25	18	40		3
Oct. 15-18, 2020	R.V.	29	23	9	35		4
Sept. 22-24, 2020	R.V.	25	26	12	32		5
June 17-22, 2020	R.V.	26	26	15	27		5

(Open-ended responses, classified by issue) Thinking back to when Donald Trump was president, what one thing do you remember most about Donald Trump’s presidency?

[IF NEEDED: If you had to pick just ONE thing...]

Date:	Apr. 7-11, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	875
[VOL] Economic policies/stimulus		24%
[VOL] The coronavirus pandemic		4%
[VOL] Immigration		9%
[VOL] Behavior/leadership/personal characteristics		39%
[VOL] Jan. 6/the election		5%
[VOL] Foreign policy/conflicts		5%
[VOL] Other (specify)		9%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		6%

(Previous question, classified by sentiment) Thinking back to when Donald Trump was president, what one thing do you remember most about Donald Trump’s presidency?

[IF NEEDED: If you had to pick just ONE thing...]

Date:	Apr. 7-11, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	875
[VOL] Positive sentiment		34%
[VOL] Negative sentiment		34%
[VOL] Neither positive nor negative sentiment		26%
[VOL] Other (specify)		0%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		6%

Do you generally remember the years that Donald Trump was president as mostly good years for America, mostly bad years for America, or not really good or bad?

Date:	Apr. 7-11, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	875
Mostly good for America		42%
Mostly bad for America		33%
Not really good or bad		23%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		2%

Do you think the years that Joe Biden has been president have been mostly good years for America, mostly bad years for America, or not really good or bad?

Date:	Apr. 7-11, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	875
Mostly good for America		25%
Mostly bad for America		46%
Not really good or bad		27%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		1%

Do you think Donald Trump left the country better off or worse off than when he took office?

Date

Pop.

Better off

Worse off

[VOL] The same

[VOL] Don't know /Refused

Apr. 7-11, 2024

R.V.

48%

46%

Compare to: Do you think America is better off or worse off than it was four years ago?

Date	Pop.	Better off	Worse off	[VOL] Same	[VOL] Don’t know /Refused
Oct. 15-18, 2020	R.V.	39%	54%	3%	4%

Tell me whether you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump handled each of the following issues when he was president:

(Split A) The economy

[IF NEEDED: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump handled this when he was president? Is that strongly or somewhat?]

Date

Pop.

Strongly approve

Somewhat approve

Somewhat disapprove

Strongly disapprove

[VOL] Don't know /Refused

Apr. 7-11, 2024

R.V.

44%

20%

13%

20%

Compare to: Next, tell me whether you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling each of the following issues: The economy

Date	Pop.	Approve	Disapprove	[VOL] Don’t know /Refused
Sept. 22-24, 2020	R.V.	54%	41%	4%

(Split B) The coronavirus pandemic

[IF NEEDED: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump handled this when he was president? Is that strongly or somewhat?]

Date

Pop.

Strongly approve

Somewhat approve

Somewhat disapprove

Strongly disapprove

[VOL] Don't know /Refused

Apr. 7-11, 2024

R.V.

18%

25%

16%

36%

Compare to: Next, tell me whether you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling each of the following issues: The coronavirus pandemic

Date	Pop.	Approve	Disapprove	[VOL] Don’t know /Refused
Sept. 22-24, 2020	R.V.	40%	57%	3%

(Split A) Maintaining law and order

[IF NEEDED: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump handled this when he was president? Is that strongly or somewhat?]

Date

Pop.

Strongly approve

Somewhat approve

Somewhat disapprove

Strongly disapprove

[VOL] Don't know /Refused

Apr. 7-11, 2024

R.V.

29%

22%

13%

33%

Compare to: Next, tell me whether you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling each of the following issues: Maintaining law and order

Date	Pop.	Approve	Disapprove	[VOL] Don’t know /Refused
Sept. 22-24, 2020	R.V.	43%	52%	5%

(Split B) Unifying America

[IF NEEDED: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump handled this when he was president? Is that strongly or somewhat?]

Date

Pop.

Strongly approve

Somewhat approve

Somewhat disapprove

Strongly disapprove

[VOL] Don't know /Refused

Apr. 7-11, 2024

R.V.

19%

15%

43%

Compare to: Next, tell me whether you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling each of the following issues: Unifying America

Date	Pop.	Approve	Disapprove	[VOL] Don’t know /Refused
Sept. 22-24, 2020	R.V.	33%	61%	5%

(Split A) The Supreme Court

[IF NEEDED: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump handled this when he was president? Is that strongly or somewhat?]

Date

Pop.

Strongly approve

Somewhat approve

Somewhat disapprove

Strongly disapprove

[VOL] Don't know /Refused

Apr. 7-11, 2024

R.V.

27%

17%

10%

37%

Compare to: Next, tell me whether you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling each of the following issues: The Supreme Court

Date	Pop.	Approve	Disapprove	[VOL] Don’t know /Refused
Sept. 22-24, 2020	R.V.	44%	48%	8%

(Split B) Foreign conflicts

[IF NEEDED: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump handled this when he was president? Is that strongly or somewhat?]

Date:	Apr. 7-11, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	420
Strongly approve		32%
Somewhat approve		17%
Somewhat disapprove		16%
Strongly disapprove		30%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		6%

(Split A) Race relations

[IF NEEDED: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump handled this when he was president? Is that strongly or somewhat?]

Date:	Apr. 7-11, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	455
Strongly approve		22%
Somewhat approve		20%
Somewhat disapprove		13%
Strongly disapprove		40%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		5%

(Split B) Immigration

[IF NEEDED: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump handled this when he was president? Is that strongly or somewhat?]

Date:	Apr. 7-11, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	420
Strongly approve		34%
Somewhat approve		16%
Somewhat disapprove		12%
Strongly disapprove		34%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		4%

Tell me whether you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling each of the following issues as president:

(Split A) The economy

[IF NEEDED: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling each of the following issues as president? Is that strongly or somewhat?]

Date:	Apr. 7-11, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	455
Strongly approve		18%
Somewhat approve		17%
Somewhat disapprove		14%
Strongly disapprove		49%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		2%

(Split B) The coronavirus pandemic

[IF NEEDED: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling each of the following issues as president? Is that strongly or somewhat?]

Date:	Apr. 7-11, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	420
Strongly approve		26%
Somewhat approve		29%
Somewhat disapprove		10%
Strongly disapprove		30%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		6%

(Split A) Maintaining law and order

[IF NEEDED: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling each of the following issues as president? Is that strongly or somewhat?]

Date:	Apr. 7-11, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	455
Strongly approve		17%
Somewhat approve		25%
Somewhat disapprove		13%
Strongly disapprove		42%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		3%

(Split B) Unifying America

[IF NEEDED: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling each of the following issues as president? Is that strongly or somewhat?]

Date:	Apr. 7-11, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	420
Strongly approve		16%
Somewhat approve		29%
Somewhat disapprove		14%
Strongly disapprove		36%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		5%

(Split A) The Supreme Court

[IF NEEDED: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling each of the following issues as president? Is that strongly or somewhat?]

Date:	Apr. 7-11, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	455
Strongly approve		12%
Somewhat approve		25%
Somewhat disapprove		19%
Strongly disapprove		31%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		13%

(Split B) Foreign conflicts

[IF NEEDED: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling each of the following issues as president? Is that strongly or somewhat?]

Date:	Apr. 7-11, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	420
Strongly approve		11%
Somewhat approve		24%
Somewhat disapprove		18%
Strongly disapprove		43%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		3%

(Split A) Race relations

[IF NEEDED: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling each of the following issues as president? Is that strongly or somewhat?]

Date:	Apr. 7-11, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	455
Strongly approve		17%
Somewhat approve		30%
Somewhat disapprove		17%
Strongly disapprove		32%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		4%

(Split B) Immigration

[IF NEEDED: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling each of the following issues as president? Is that strongly or somewhat?]

Date:	Apr. 7-11, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	420
Strongly approve		8%
Somewhat approve		24%
Somewhat disapprove		17%
Strongly disapprove		47%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		4%

Do you think Donald Trump is good for democracy, bad for democracy, or neither good nor bad for democracy?

Date:	Apr. 7-11, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	875
Good for democracy		31%
Bad for democracy		45%
Neither good nor bad for democracy		22%
[VOL] Don’t know/Refused		2%

(If bad for democracy) Which statement comes closer to your view, even if neither is exactly right?

[READ LIST]

Date:	Apr. 7-11, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	875
Donald Trump poses a unique threat to democracy		41%
Donald Trump is not much worse for democracy than typical politicians		4%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		0%
[PREVIOUSLY] Good for democracy		31%
[PREVIOUSLY] Neither good nor bad for democracy		22%
[PREVIOUSLY] Don’t know/Refused		2%

(Without combination) (If bad for democracy) Which statement comes closer to your view, even if neither is exactly right?

[READ LIST]

Date:	Apr. 7-11, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	412
Donald Trump poses a unique threat to democracy		90%
Donald Trump is not much worse for democracy than typical politicians		10%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		0%

Do you think Joe Biden is good for democracy, bad for democracy, or neither good nor bad for democracy?

Date:	Apr. 7-11, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	875
Good for democracy		31%
Bad for democracy		38%
Neither good nor bad for democracy		30%
[VOL] Don’t know/Refused		1%

(If bad for democracy) Which statement comes closer to your view, even if neither is exactly right?

[READ LIST]

Date:	Apr. 7-11, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	875
Joe Biden poses a unique threat to democracy		28%
Joe Biden is not much worse for democracy than typical politicians		9%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		<1%
[PREVIOUSLY] Good for democracy		31%
[PREVIOUSLY] Neither good nor bad for democracy		30%
[PREVIOUSLY] Don’t know/Refused		1%

(Without combination) (If bad for democracy) Which statement comes closer to your view, even if neither is exactly right?

[READ LIST]

Date:	Apr. 7-11, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	326
Joe Biden poses a unique threat to democracy		75%
Joe Biden is not much worse for democracy than typical politicians		23%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		3%

Thinking about the nation's economy, how would you rate economic conditions today?

[READ LIST]

Date	Pop.	Excellent	Good	Only fair	Poor	[VOL] Don't know /Refused
Apr. 7-11, 2024	R.V.	4%	17%	27%	52%	<.5%
Feb. 25-28, 2024	R.V.	7	19	23	51	<.5
July 23-27, 2023	R.V.	2	18	29	49	2
July 5-7, 2022	R.V.	1	9	29	58	2
Sept. 22-24, 2020	L.V.	5	29	35	29	2

Next, regardless of who you support for president, tell me whether you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree with each of the following statements.

Joe Biden is just too old to be an effective president.

[IF NEEDED: Tell me whether you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree...]

Date	Pop.	Strongly agree	Somewhat agree	Somewhat disagree	Strongly disagree	[VOL] Don’t know /Refused
Apr. 7-11, 2024	R.V.	48%	21%	14%	13%	3%
Feb. 25-28, 2024	R.V.	47	26	14	11	2

Donald Trump is just too old to be an effective president.

[IF NEEDED: Tell me whether you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree...]

Date	Pop.	Strongly agree	Somewhat agree	Somewhat disagree	Strongly disagree	[VOL] Don’t know /Refused
Apr. 7-11, 2024	R.V.	21%	20%	24%	32%	3%
Feb. 25-28, 2024	R.V.	21	21	23	32

(Split B) Do you think Joe Biden has the personality and temperament to be an effective president?

Date	Pop.	Yes	No	[VOL] Don’t know /Refused
Apr. 7-11, 2024	R.V.	45%	54%	1%
Feb. 25-28, 2024	R.V.	51	45	4

Do you think Donald Trump has the personality and temperament to be an effective president?

Date	Pop.	Yes	No	[VOL] Don’t know /Refused
Apr. 7-11, 2024	R.V.	41%	57%	2%
Feb. 25-28, 2024	R.V.	41	56	3
Oct. 28-Nov. 1, 2016 Times/CBS *	R.V.	32	66	2
Sept. 9-13, 2016 Times/CBS *	R.V.	31	64	4
May 13-17, 2016 Times/CBS *	R.V.	27	70	3
* Question was: Do you think Donald Trump has the right kind of temperament and personality to be a good president, or not?

If Donald Trump is elected president in November, what best describes your feelings about what he will do in office?

[READ LIST]

Date	Pop.	Excited	Optimistic	Concerned	Scared	[VOL] Don't know /Refused
Apr. 7-11, 2024	R.V.	14%	32%	22%	31%	2%
Oct. 28-Nov. 1, 2016 Times/CBS	R.V.	13	24	21	40
Mar. 17-20, 2016 Times/CBS	R.V.	10	20	19	50

Would you be more likely to describe electing Donald Trump as president this November as a safe choice for the country or a risky choice for the country?

Date	Pop.	Safe choice	Risky choice	[VOL] Don’t know /Refused
Apr. 7-11, 2024	R.V.	41%	57%	1%
Sept. 9-13, 2016 Times/CBS	R.V.	30	67	2

Would you be more likely to describe re-electing Joe Biden as president this November as a safe choice for the country or a risky choice for the country?

Date:	Apr. 7-11, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	875
Safe choice		40%
Risky choice		58%
[VOL] Don’t know/Refused		2%

Has Donald Trump ever said anything that you found offensive?

[FOLLOW UP: Was that recently or not recently?]

Date:	Apr. 7-11, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	875
Yes, recently		38%
Yes, but not recently		33%
No		27%
[VOL] Don’t know/Refused		2%

How much do you think Donald Trump respects women?

[READ LIST]

Date	Pop.	A lot	Some	Not much	Not at all	[VOL] Don’t know /Refused
Apr. 7-11, 2024	R.V.	18%	23%	19%	36%	3%
Oct. 28-Nov. 1, 2016 Times/CBS	R.V.	20	25	15	38	2
Sept. 9-13, 2016 Times/CBS	R.V.	23	27	21	27	3

Thinking about the investigations into Donald Trump, do you think that Donald Trump has or has not committed any serious federal crimes?

Date	Pop.	Donald Trump has committed serious federal crimes	Donald Trump has not committed serious federal crimes	[VOL] Don't know /Refused
Apr. 7-11, 2024	R.V.	54%	37%	9%
Feb. 25-28, 2024	R.V.	53	36	11
Dec. 10-14, 2023	R.V.	58	33	9
July 23-27, 2023	R.V.	51	35	14
Sept. 6-14, 2022	R.V.	51	38	11
July 5-7, 2022 *	R.V.	49	40	11
* Wording was: Do you think that Donald Trump did or did not commit any serious federal crimes in the aftermath of the 2020 election?

What comes closer to your view about Donald Trump's actions after the 2020 election?

[READ LIST]

Date	Pop.	He was just exercising his right to contest the election	He went so far that he threatened American democracy	[VOL] Don't know /Refused
Apr. 7-11, 2024	R.V.	43%	51%	6%
July 23-27, 2023	R.V.	39	53	8
Sept. 6-14, 2022	R.V.	38	54	8
July 5-7, 2022	R.V.	39	55	7

How much attention would you say you are paying to news about the legal cases against Donald Trump?

[READ LIST]

Date	Pop.	A lot of attention	Some attention	Only a little attention	No attention at all	[VOL] Don't know /Refused
Apr. 7-11, 2024	R.V.	26%	36%	24%	13%	<1%
Dec. 10-14, 2023	R.V.	21	31	28	19	1

Regardless of whether you think Donald Trump did this, do you think the charges that he falsified business records related to hush money payments made to the porn star Stormy Daniels are very serious, somewhat serious, not too serious or not at all serious?

Date:	Apr. 7-11, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	875
Very serious		30%
Somewhat serious		28%
Not too serious		14%
Not at all serious		22%
[VOL] Don’t know/Refused		6%

Thinking about the New York State trial of Donald Trump related to hush money payments made to the porn star Stormy Daniels, do you think he should be found guilty or not guilty?

Date:	Apr. 7-11, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	875
Donald Trump should be found guilty		46%
Donald Trump should be found NOT guilty		36%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		18%

In the dispute between Israel and the Palestinians [pah-luh-stin-ians], which side do you sympathize with more: Israel or the Palestinians [pah-luh-stin-ians]?

Date	Pop.	Israel	Palestinians	[VOL] Both equally (Includes neither)	[VOL] Don’t know /Refused
Apr. 7-11, 2024	R.V.	42%	24%	18%	17%
Feb. 25-28, 2024	R.V.	40	24	15	21
Dec. 10-14, 2023	R.V.	47	20	13	20

What single news source do you turn to most often?

This could include a social media site or a news site.

[IF NEEDED: If you had to pick just one.]

Date:	Apr. 7-11, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	875
[VOL] Fox News		11%
[VOL] CNN		11%
[VOL] MSNBC		3%
[VOL] Public Radio/NPR/PBS		4%
[VOL] Talk radio/conservative personality		1%
[VOL] National television networks, like CBS, NBC or ABC		11%
[VOL] Local broadcast news (includes non-talk, non-public local radio)		8%
[VOL] National print or online news organizations, like The New York Times or The Wall Street Journal		5%
[VOL] Local print or online news organizations		<.5%
[VOL] Social media		17%
[VOL] Friends and family		<.5%
[VOL] International news sources (such as the BBC, Al Jazeera and The Guardian)		1%
[VOL] Aggregation sites (such as Bing, Google, Yahoo News or Apple News)		4%
[VOL] Conservative news sites		3%
[VOL] Newsmax		1%
[VOL] Liberal news sites (Such as Mother Jones and Occupy Democrats)		<.5%
[VOL] Doesn’t consume news		3%
[VOL] Other (includes no preference and the internet)		10%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		5%

How often, if ever, do you use social media, such as Facebook, Instagram, TikTok or others?

[READ LIST]

Date:	Apr. 7-11, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	875
Often		53%
Sometimes		17%
Rarely		13%
Never		16%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		<1%

(If social media user) How often, if ever, do you use TikTok?

[READ LIST]

Date:	Apr. 7-11, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	875
Often		16%
Sometimes		9%
Rarely		12%
Never		47%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		<.5%
[PREVIOUSLY] Never use social media		16%
[PREVIOUSLY] Don't know/Refused		<1%

(Without combination) (If social media user) How often, if ever, do you use TikTok?

[READ LIST]

Date:	Apr. 7-11, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	745
Often		20%
Sometimes		11%
Rarely		14%
Never		56%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		<.5%

And just a few more questions for demographic purposes...

Do you consider yourself politically liberal, moderate or conservative?

[FOLLOW UP: (If liberal or conservative) Is that very or somewhat?]

Date:	Apr. 7-11, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	875
Very liberal		11%
Somewhat liberal		12%
Moderate		36%
Somewhat conservative		19%
Very conservative		16%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		5%

Which of the following general income categories is your total household income before taxes?

[IF NEEDED: I just want to remind you that you are completely anonymous. We only use this information in aggregate form to ensure we have a representative group of people.]

Date:	Apr. 7-11, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	875
Under $25,000		10%
At least $25,000 but under $50,000		15%
At least $50,000 but under $100,000		26%
At least $100,000 but under $200,000		27%
$200,000 or more		13%
[VOL] Refused		9%

Do you consider yourself Catholic, Protestant, Mormon, Jewish, Muslim, some other religion, or do you have no religious affiliation?

Date:	Apr. 7-11, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	875
Catholic		19%
Protestant (Christian)		28%
Mormon (LDS)		1%
Jewish		2%
Muslim		<1%
[VOL] Christian (includes Baptist, Lutheran, Episcopalian, Methodist, Adventist, Presbyterian)		11%
[VOL] Greek/Russian Orthodox		<.5%
Some other religion (specify)		3%
No religious affiliation		31%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		3%

(If Protestant, Christian, Mormon, Greek/Russian Orthodox or some other religion) Do you consider yourself an evangelical or born-again Christian?

Date:	Apr. 7-11, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	875
Yes		26%
No		18%
[PREVIOUSLY] Catholic, Jewish, Muslim, no religious affiliation or refused		55%
[VOL] Refused		1%

(Without combination) (If Protestant, Christian, Mormon, Greek/Russian Orthodox or some other religion) Do you consider yourself an evangelical or born-again Christian?

Date:	Apr. 7-11, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	398
Yes		58%
No		39%
[VOL] Refused		3%

(If independent, another party or not sure) And as of today, do you lean more to:

[READ LIST]

Date:	Apr. 7-11, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	377
The Democratic Party		35%
The Republican Party		42%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		22%

Combined: Party identification and leaners

Date:	Apr. 7-11, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	875
The Democratic Party		47%
The Republican Party		44%
[VOL] Don't know/Refused		9%

Would you be open to commenting on the issues in this survey and be interested in being contacted by a reporter?

Date:	Apr. 7-11, 2024
Pop.:	R.V.
N:	875
Yes		32%
No		68%

Party ID is self-identified party, without leaners; independents include only self-identified independents.

Gender is self-reported if the respondent completed the full questionnaire; otherwise, it is based on the interviewer’s determination. If neither are available, it is as reported on the voter file.

Neighborhood type is a New York Times classification based on each voter’s address. Voters within a metropolitan area’s central city are classified as living in a city. Voters living in a metropolitan area but outside the central city are considered suburban if they live in a census-designated urban area. All other voters — those living in nonmetropolitan areas, and those living in non-urbanized parts of metropolitan areas outside the central city — are classified as living in small towns or rural areas.

How This Poll Was Conducted

Here are the key things to know about this Times/Siena poll:

• We spoke with 1,059 registered voters from April 7 to 11, 2024.

• Our polls are conducted by telephone, using live interviewers, in both English and Spanish. More than 95 percent of respondents were contacted on a cellphone for this poll.

• Voters are selected for the survey from a list of registered voters. The list contains information on the demographic characteristics of every registered voter, allowing us to make sure we reach the right number of voters of each party, race and region. For this poll, we placed nearly 127,000 calls to more than 93,000 voters.

• To further ensure that the results reflect the entire voting population, not just those willing to take a poll, we give more weight to respondents from demographic groups underrepresented among survey respondents, like people without a college degree. You can see more information about the characteristics of our respondents and the weighted sample at the bottom of the page, under “Composition of the Sample.”

• The poll’s margin of sampling error among registered voters is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. In theory, this means that the results should reflect the views of the overall population most of the time, though many other challenges create additional sources of error. When computing the difference between two values — such as a candidate’s lead in a race — the margin of error is twice as large.

If you want to read more about how and why we conduct our polls, you can see answers to frequently asked questions and submit your own questions here.

Full Methodology

The New York Times/Siena College poll of 1,059 registered voters nationwide, including 875 who completed the full survey, was conducted in English and Spanish on cellular and landline telephones from April 7 to 11, 2024. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points for registered voters and plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for the likely electorate. Among those who completed the full survey, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points for registered voters and plus or minus 3.9 percentage points for the likely electorate.

Sample

The survey is a response rate-adjusted stratified sample of registered voters on the L2 voter file. The sample was selected by The New York Times in multiple steps to account for differential telephone coverage, nonresponse and significant variation in the productivity of telephone numbers by state.

First, records were selected by state. To adjust for noncoverage bias, the L2 voter file was stratified by statehouse district, party, race, gender, marital status, household size, turnout history, age and home ownership. The proportion of registrants with a telephone number and the mean expected response rate were calculated for each stratum. The mean expected response rate was based on a model of unit nonresponse in prior Times/Siena surveys. The initial selection weight was equal to the reciprocal of a stratum’s mean telephone coverage and modeled response rate. For respondents with multiple telephone numbers on the L2 file, the number with the highest modeled response rate was selected.

Second, state records were selected for the national sample. The number of records selected by state was based on a model of unit nonresponse in prior Times/Siena national surveys as a function of state, telephone number quality and other demographic and political characteristics. The state’s share of records was equal to the reciprocal of the mean response rate of the state’s records, divided by the national sum of the weights.

Fielding

The sample was stratified according to political party, race and region and fielded by the Siena College Research Institute, with additional field work by ReconMR, the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the University of North Florida, the Institute of Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College, and the Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at Winthrop University in South Carolina. Interviewers asked for the person named on the voter file and ended the interview if the intended respondent was not available. Overall, 95 percent of respondents were reached on a cellular telephone.

The instrument was translated into Spanish by ReconMR. Bilingual interviewers began the interview in English and were instructed to follow the lead of the respondent in determining whether to conduct the survey in English or Spanish. Monolingual Spanish-speaking respondents who were initially contacted by English-speaking interviewers were recontacted by Spanish-speaking interviewers. Overall, 12 percent of interviews among self-reported Hispanics were conducted in Spanish, including 13 percent of weighted interviews.

An interview was determined to be complete for the purposes of inclusion in the ballot test question if the respondent did not drop out of the survey by the end of the two self-reported variables used in weighting — age and education — and answered at least one of the age, education, race or presidential election ballot test questions.

Weighting — registered voters

The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package in multiple steps.

First, the sample was adjusted for unequal probability of selection by stratum.

Second, the sample was weighted to match voter file-based parameters for the characteristics of registered voters.

The following targets were used:

• Party (party registration if available, or else classification based on a model of vote choice in prior Times/Siena polls) by whether the respondent’s race is modeled as white or nonwhite (L2 model)

• Age (Self-reported age, or voter file age if the respondent refuses) by gender (L2)

• Race or ethnicity (L2 model)

• Education (four categories of self-reported education level, weighted to match NYT-based targets derived from Times/Siena polls, census data and the L2 voter file)

• White/non-white race by college or non-college educational attainment (L2 model of race weighted to match NYT-based targets for self-reported education)

• Marital status (L2 model)

• Home ownership (L2 model)

• National region (NYT classifications by state)

• Turnout history (NYT classifications based on L2 data)

• Method of voting in the 2020 elections (NYT classifications based on L2 data)

• Metropolitan status (2013 NCHS Urban-Rural Classification Scheme for Counties)

Finally, the sample of respondents who completed all questions in the survey was weighted identically, as well as to the result for the general election horse race question (including leaners) on the full sample.

Weighting — likely electorate

The survey was weighted by The Times using the R survey package in multiple steps.

First, the samples were adjusted for unequal probability of selection by stratum.

Second, the first-stage weight was adjusted to account for the probability that a registrant would vote in the 2024 election, based on a model of turnout in the 2020 election.

Third, the sample was weighted to match targets for the composition of the likely electorate. The targets for the composition of the likely electorate were derived by aggregating the individual-level turnout estimates described in the previous step for registrants on the L2 voter file. The categories used in weighting were the same as those previously mentioned for registered voters.

Fourth, the initial likely electorate weight was adjusted to incorporate self-reported intention to vote intention. The final probability that a registrant would vote in the 2024 election was four-fifths based on their ex ante modeled turnout score and one-fifth based on their self-reported intentions, based on prior Times/Siena polls, including a penalty to account for the tendency of survey respondents to turn out at higher rates than nonrespondents. The final likely electorate weight was equal to the modeled electorate rake weight, multiplied by the final turnout probability and divided by the ex ante modeled turnout probability.

The margin of error accounts for the survey’s design effect, a measure of the loss of statistical power due to survey design and weighting. The design effect for the full sample is 1.19 for registered voters and 1.39 for the likely electorate. The design effect for the sample of completed interviews is 1.23 for registered voters and 1.4 for the likely electorate.

Historically, The Times/Siena Poll’s error at the 95th percentile has been plus or minus 5.1 percentage points in surveys taken over the final three weeks before an election. Real-world error includes sources of error beyond sampling error, such as nonresponse bias, coverage error, late shifts among undecided voters and error in estimating the composition of the electorate.

Composition of the Sample

Group	Unweighted All R.V.s	Weighted All R.V.s	Weighted Likely Electorate	N
Gender
Men	49%	47%	47%	520
Women	50	52	53	527
Age
18 to 29	18	16	12	192
30 to 44	26	23	22	272
45 to 64	31	31	33	330
65 and older	20	25	28	210
Education
High school	19	30	28	197
Some college	34	31	31	365
College	26	23	25	275
Post-graduate	20	14	16	214
Home Ownership (L2 Model)
Likely renter	28	27	23	299
Likely homeowner	40	45	51	424
Unknown	32	28	26	336
Marital Status (L2 Model)
Married	31	33	39	323
Nontraditional	8	8	9	85
Unknown	61	58	52	651
Party (Self-Reported)
Democrat	30	31	33	315
Republican	26	27	28	274
Independent	34	32	31	365
Party (Based on L2 Data)
Democrat	32	34	36	337
Republican	29	29	33	307
Other	39	37	31	415
Race (L2 Model)
White	65	63	66	685
Hispanic	13	12	11	133
Black	10	10	9	101
Asian	2	3	3	21
Other	3	3	3	28
Race (L2 Model)
White	65	63	66	685
Nonwhite	27	29	26	284
National Region
Midwest	20	21	22	211
Northeast	20	20	20	208
South	39	35	35	408
West	22	23	24	232
Turnout History (Based on L2 Data)
Voted in last midterm and in a primary	38	41	51	404
Voted in last two midterms	23	23	26	242
Voted in last general, no midterm	13	13	11	136
Did not vote in last general or midterm	14	14	6	147
New registrant	12	9	6	130