A drop in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions does not mean that the fight against climate change is on the way to being won. But the fact that, for the first time, every sector in France recorded a simultaneous year-on-year fall in GHG emissions in 2023 represents real progress, even if it is insufficient. While there is no room for triumph, it would be wrong to overlook this result, which should encourage us to persevere in our efforts.
GHG emissions fell by 4.8% last year compared with 2022, according to provisional figures published on Thursday, March 21, by the Interprofessional Technical Center for the Study of Atmospheric Pollution, CITEPA). This is the sharpest decrease in eight years and almost double the figure for 2022.
Energy production, industry, buildings, land transport: all the major CO2-emitting sectors have contributed to the decline. The agricultural balance sheet, due in June, should also be down. The only false note comes from the air transport sector, which, after the Covid-19 pandemic, is experiencing a strong upturn in activity. And there's a downside to this picture: the carbon footprint of imports is not accounted for.
Time for the hard part
It is difficult to distinguish between cyclical and structural factors in these results. The economic slowdown was a factor. Rising energy prices have encouraged a reduction in consumption, but this effect is not just cyclical. Energy costs are likely to remain high for a long time to come, given the investments needed to ensure the energy transition. Prices remain an important lever for changing behavior.
More structural factors such as the rise of low-carbon energies – including the resumption of nuclear production – and the increase in sales of electric vehicles and building insulation have made a decisive contribution. This is certainly no reason to rest on our laurels. There is still a long way to go to reach the target of a 55% reduction in emissions by 2030 compared with 1990. Recent budget cuts for measures that promote the green transition show that the trajectory can be called into question at the whim of current priorities. Vigilance is needed.
However, it is important to recognize real progress when it is made, to encourage further efforts. The constraints imposed by the climate transition and the cost borne both collectively and individually are not in vain and are beginning to have an effect.
We are entering the hard part of this transformation. In the face of threats to call into question the European Green Deal, protests from farmers and growing reluctance to adapt our behavior, it is vital to convince people that efforts are paying off and that it is still possible to mitigate the effects of climate change. We need to strike a balance between facing up to the seriousness of the situation and not becoming permanently dissatisfied with the progress we have made. Seizing every positive moment; choosing incentives over constraints where possible; marking out a desirable path: These are the ways to get the majority of the population on board. Without them, the transition will be doomed to failure.