Since it began in 2020, the series of coups d'état that brought anti-French military officers to power in three Sahel countries – Mali, Burkina-Faso and Niger – was commonly analyzed as the result of a desire to break with their former colonizer. The brutal eviction of US soldiers on Saturday, March 16, by the Nigerien junta under General Abdourahamane Tiani, gives another dimension to the wave of authoritarianism that has gripped this region of the African continent: that of a return to a "cold war," as when, in the 1960s-1990s, after the decolonizations, Africa had become a battle ground for proxy confrontations between the East and West.
The break with France following the July 26, 2023, putsch resulted in the termination of defense agreements with Paris and the departure of the last French soldier from Niger at the end of December. The US, for its part, was determined not to suffer the same fate for its 1,000 soldiers, stationed mainly in Agadez, a strategic base for the anti-jihadist fight as well as for stemming Russia's growing influence. Disassociating themselves from Paris's "clumsiness," they took two and a half months to qualify General Tiani's putsch as a "coup d'état" and maintained their embassy in Niamey while the French representative was expelled. Other European countries, such as Germany and Italy, thought they could break away from the French position and maintain ties with Niger.
Coming on the heels of the December announcement of closer military cooperation between Niamey and Moscow, the slap in the face inflicted on Washington by the head of the Nigerien junta, who refused to receive the Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs before announcing the expulsion of US soldiers, marks the desire for a genuine reversal of alliance. Niger, considered by the West to be the last country in the region likely to welcome its troops, is now an ally of Moscow.
Stinging setback
Officially, Washington is waiting for "clarification" from Niamey, but can only acknowledge its error of analysis regarding the trajectory taken by some West African states. The US's acrobatic stance has proved to be a miscalculation; it has not prevented Western influence in this part of the African continent from being called into question.
The suspension of US aid, a legal obligation following a coup d'état, has not encouraged the regime in power in Niamey since July 26 to return to democracy. On the contrary, Washington's demand, even if expressed mezza voce, and its warning against other outside influences, have infuriated the military. They were quick to criticize Washington's desire to "deny the sovereign Nigerien people," who have so far had no opportunity to express themselves, the "right to choose their partners." Niger also added its voice to those of Mali and Burkina Faso to congratulate Vladimir Putin on his reelection following a sham election.
Washington was also concerned about a possible rapprochement between Tehran and Niamey, motivated by Nigerien uranium deposits, given the Islamic Republic's nuclear ambitions. The strategic setback inflicted by the junta is therefore all the more stinging.