COVID-19, the disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, can cause shortness of breath, lung damage, and impaired respiratory function. Containing the virus has proven difficult, in large part due to its high transmissibility during the pre-symptomatic incubation. The study’s aim was to determine if changes in respiratory rate could serve as a leading indicator of SARS-CoV-2 infections. A total of 271 individuals (age = 37.3 ± 9.5, 190 male, 81 female) who experienced symptoms consistent with COVID-19 were included– 81 tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 and 190 tested negative; these 271 individuals collectively contributed 2672 samples (days) of data (1856 healthy days, 231 while infected with COVID-19 and 585 while negative for COVID-19 but experiencing symptoms). To train a novel algorithm, individuals were segmented as follows; (1) a training dataset of individuals who tested positive for COVID-19 (n = 57 people, 537 samples); (2) a validation dataset of individuals who tested positive for COVID-19 (n = 24 people, 320 samples); (3) a validation dataset of individuals who tested negative for COVID-19 (n = 190 people, 1815 samples). All data was extracted from the WHOOP system, which uses data from a wrist-worn strap to produce validated estimates of respiratory rate and other physiological measures. Using the training dataset, a model was developed to estimate the probability of SARS-CoV-2 infection based on changes in respiratory rate during night-time sleep. The model’s ability to identify COVID-positive individuals not used in training and robustness against COVID-negative individuals with similar symptoms were examined for a critical six-day period spanning the onset of symptoms. The model identified 20% of COVID-19 positive individuals in the validation dataset in the two days prior to symptom onset, and 80% of COVID-19 positive cases by the third day of symptoms.