Once it was clear Gerrit Cole was going to miss two-plus months, at minimum, where would the Yankees have signed up for having the second-best record in the AL and being 12 games over .500 one-quarter of the way into the schedule?
How about having that record with Aaron Judge not himself for the first month-plus before his recent surge?
It speaks well of the Yankees. It speaks well in particular to Juan Soto’s acclimation to The Bronx and how terrific the rest of the starters have done in Cole’s stead.
Those starters have been the key to me. There were lots of questions about health, makeup and performance at the dawn of the season. And none of the quintet of Nestor Cortes, Luis Gil, Carlos Rodon, Clarke Schmidt and Marcus Stroman has missed a start and each has responded with fortitude while carrying the burden without Cole.
The Yankees have not had a starter complete fewer than four innings. Only the Orioles have matched that feat. The Yankees also have had a starter allow more than four runs in a game just twice, an MLB low.
Combine those two stats and it means a Yankees starter pretty much has given the team a chance to win in every one of the team’s 42 games — the exception being the team’s worst start of the season: the four-inning, three-homer, seven-run blow-up by Rodon at Camden Yards on May 2. The longer starts also have protected the bullpen from overuse and overexposure.
Gil has been impressive since the first time he lifted his arm in spring training. He has been the AL’s best rookie starter this season (and is still eligible for Rookie of the Year).
Think of it like this: If Cole had a 2.51 ERA and was second in the majors among qualified starters with a .142 batting average against, we would think he would be in line to challenge for another Cy Young. Those are the numbers for Gil (albeit with fewer innings than Cole likely would have through eight standard starts and with far more walks).
Schmidt has graduated from surprising sturdiness last season to a higher level of dependability. The Gil-Schmidt duo has been the Yankees’ two best starters, which is fascinating because one or the other would have been considered most likely to be bounced from the rotation when Cole returns.
That is still probably a month from now, but Brian Cashman and Aaron Boone would be thrilled if they actually have to make that decision because every starter is continuing to pitch well and still healthy. When it comes to baseball, in general, and pitching, in particular, you know a crisis is always lurking. The health of this week is losing two starters next.
One of the most encouraging items with the Yankees is embodied most by Cole — it feels as if there is a better version of the Yankees yet to come. They have done all of this without the 2023 AL Cy Young winner.
Now, this is generally a foolhardy endeavor. One excuse I particularly dislike — and I heard it a lot with the 82-80 Yankees last season — is that it is difficult to judge a team when we haven’t really seen it at full strength due to injuries.
First, every club has injuries. No team is ever completely whole with the ideal roster of its dreams. Second, the 2023 Yankees were designed with lots of players who had extensive injury histories, so having a high body count was no surprise. Yes, the vital injuries to Judge and Anthony Rizzo were freakish, but again, the Yankees were not the only team visited by bad luck.
So the idea that all the currently injured Yankees players are going to get healthy and that no one else is going to get hurt is likely the stuff of fantasy. Nevertheless, the Yankees should feel they have stuff coming to build on this positive start:
1. Cole. Let’s not bury the lead. He is arguably the best pitcher in the world and getting him back improves the Yankees. If they get him back in full, that is. This was an elbow injury. Because it was a nerve, there has been belief that medicine and rest and a slow, steady buildup is the right antidote.
If he is the 2023 version of Cole for half a season, the Yankees’ chances to win the AL East — and more — rises considerably.
2. Tommy Kahnle. I do not find Kahnle overly trustworthy, but he is kind of what the Yankees need right now. The Yankees bullpen is having trouble with strikeouts, and Kahnle had a 29.1 strikeout percentage before being shut down last year.
The Yankees’ two lefty relievers — Caleb Ferguson and Victor Gonzalez — hardly have inspired early this season. Kahnle, with his changeup, is another late-game option to use against lefties despite being right-handed.
Kahnle is perhaps a week away as he rehabs a shoulder ailment. Is it possible the Yankees also get Scott Effross and/or Lou Trivino back sometime in the second half?
3. DJ LeMahieu. There remain questions about when LeMahieu will return and at what capability. He suffered a non-displaced foot fracture in spring training, attempted to begin a rehab assignment and had to shut down right away. The Yankees believe he will start up again soon.
If he is the player from the second half of last season, the Yankees will be getting a strong defender at third base who hit .273 with a .377 on-base percentage and an .809 OPS. That not only greatly lengthens the lineup, but it improves the bench. Jon Berti and Oswaldo Cabrera would give Boone a lot of late-game running, multi-position defense and hitting alternatives. It is possible that if the Yankees do not want to lose Jahmai Jones, who is out of options, they could send Cabrera down when (if?) LeMahieu returns.
4. Jasson Dominguez. He is due to begin a rehab assignment this week after Tommy John surgery. The plan is for Dominguez to DH at first and graduate after two weeks to the outfield.
Again, where would Cashman and Boone sign up for Dominguez to rehab well over the next month and for Judge, Soto, Giancarlo Stanton and Alex Verdugo all to be healthy and productive at that time?
The Yankees could always send Dominguez back to the minors to play regularly. His four homers in eight games last year before needing the surgery have elevated expectations. I do wonder what the Yankees have in the switch-hitter. Scouts from other teams like Dominguez, some a lot. But I just have not heard a lot of star-level grades put on him.
Soto and Verdugo are in their walk years, so Dominguez would seem a lot more certain to be part of the 2025 outfield, even if the Yankees’ hoped-for outcome (re-signing Soto) occurs. It will be fascinating what they can get from him this year — if the need arises.
5. Gleyber Torres. Unlike the previously listed players, Torres has not been injured. He has started all but two games at second base this season. But his offense has been missing and his defense has ben shaky, resulting in him having a minus-0.2 Wins Above Replacement (Baseball Reference).
But he is 27. Unless looming free agency after this season is weighing him down, Torres has a lot more offense to give.
I believe the same about Austin Wells, who might be hitting .200, but has 13 walks against 10 strikeouts and the best line-drive percentage of anyone on the team with at least 50 plate appearances. In his past 10 games, he was hitting .333 with a 1.012 OPS and six extra-base hits.
If those two guys hit, there is a version of the Yankees offense that grows from strong to elite.
Awards watch
If you wanted to go with Soto as your American League MVP one-quarter of the way into this season, sure, why not? He’s been a great hitter, brilliant in the clutch and defended better than his reputation would suggest.
But I think it comes down to two shortstops: Kansas City’s Bobby Witt Jr. and Baltimore’s Gunnar Henderson.
As total players, they are extremely close. Henderson has the power edge, Witt the batting average and speed advantage. Both are good at everything, though. And both are good defenders, though the slight nod probably goes to Witt.
Overall, the two are separated by a hair, but I would go with Witt for this reason: his surroundings. And, thus, it is about value.
This is no knock on Henderson. He just is surrounded by so many better hitters.
He led the Orioles with an OPS-plus of 164. But Baltimore finished the weekend with six players who had batted at least 100 times and had an OPS-plus of 130 or higher. That was one more than the Dodgers for the most in the majors and three more than any other team.
The Royals have two such players in Witt Jr. (152) and Salvador Perez, but they also had five players who had batted at least 110 times and produced an OPS-plus lower than 90. Only the Pirates also had that kind of widespread failure. The Orioles had just one.
Remove Witt from the Royals and they had a .674 OPS, or 222 points lower than Witt (.896) had individually. Remove Henderson and the Orioles had a .726 OPS, or 188 points lower than Henderson’s mark (.914).
Both are tremendous. I think the most valuable (emphasis on valuable) is Witt, whose absence from the Royals would mean so much more.
Caught my attention
If we had a discussion, say, after the Mets made the playoffs in 2015 and 2016 and we were trying to guess who might win a Cy Young from their acclaimed young group of pitchers, I am not sure Jacob deGrom would have been the top choice.
Perhaps Matt Harvey would have fallen out of the conversation after needing thoracic outlet syndrome surgery in 2016.
But Noah Syndergaard had just finished eighth in the NL Cy Young voting in 2016 and had appeared in five career postseason games with a 2.64 ERA, including throwing seven shutout innings in a head-to-head showdown against San Francisco ace Madison Bumgarner in the 2016 NL wild-card game.
Zack Wheeler didn’t pitch in 2015 or ’16, but there was still upside, as there was believed to be with Steven Matz as well. And, yeah, deGrom was terrific.
But what if it turns out that if there is a third Cy Young Award forthcoming from that group after those won in 2018 and 2019 by deGrom, it comes from Seth Lugo?
Wheeler has been tremendous, and the Phillies ace is likely to be in award contention, even after a poor start Sunday against the Marlins.
But the pitcher leading the AL in ERA (1.66) right now is Lugo, who helped the Mets make the wild-card game as a rookie in 2016 as a combo starter and reliever. He never could fully establish himself as a starter with the Mets.
But he signed before last season with the Padres as a starter, and did well enough (3.57 ERA in 26 starts) in that role that the Royals signed him to a three-year, $45 million free-agent pact.
He has held opponents to a .205 batting average and .250 on-base percentage.
Without Cole — the defending AL Cy winner — having thrown a pitch and with 2024 runner-up Sonny Gray now in the NL, the AL race is wide open and filled with surprises.
Here are the top 10 in order in AL pitching WAR (Baseball Reference): Kutter Crawford, Lugo, Ronel Blanco, Tyler Anderson, Tarik Skubal, Erick Fedde, Tanner Houck, Nathan Eovaldi, Brady Singer and Gil.
Eovaldi is the only one who has ever received a Cy Young vote.
Last licks
You didn’t think you would get to the end of one of these columns without a basketball reference, did you?
Here is what I am thinking: If the Timberwolves make it to the NBA Finals against the Celtics, just how loud and vicious is the reception going to be when Alex Rodriguez (who is involved with Minnesota’s ownership) takes his courtside seat at TD Garden?
How about if the Celtics emphasize the point by putting A-Rod’s courtside seat next to a special guest … Jason Varitek?
And, look, if the Knicks somehow got to the Finals against the Timberwolves, Rodriguez might discover his ties to the Yankees provide very little protection at Madison Square Garden. My suspicion is someone involved with the Timberwolves ownership and owning his complicated baseball history and time with the Yankees should not exactly expect an ovation.