Disney+ vs. Netflix: How Many Subscribers Will Switch?

The video streaming market isn't a zero-sum game, but some of the biggest decisions for consumers as they face a content-industrial complex of streaming options are how many services they're willling to pay for and which exclusive movies and shows will make the difference.

Streaming Observer and Mindset Analytics took a survey of 602 current US Netflix subscribers to find out how they feel about Disney+, which will launch on Nov. 12 for $6.99 per month. The survey found that 14 percent of respondents are at least considering dropping Netflix (which raised its prices in January) for Disney+. But the vast majority of subscribers either aren't planning on canceling or plan to subscribe to multiple services.

The survey found that 38 percent of respondents plan to try Disney+, while 40 percent don't. Another 22 percent of current Netflix subscribers were unsure.

Unsurprisingly, one demographic where Disney+ was far more popular was parents with young kids. Between all the streaming options available or coming to the market—from Netflix, Prime Video, and Hulu to NBCUniversal, WarnerMedia, and Apple TV+—Disney+ has a major content advantage in kids programming.

Disney's service will feature the the Mouse's film and animation vault, the entire catalog of Pixar movies (plus new originals) and National Geographic, and a library of past and present Disney Channel programming. Streaming Observer found that 21 percent of parents (compared to 8 percent of other respondents) may cancel Netflix for Disney+, while 26 percent of parents plan on subscribing to both services.

Netflix will be just fine in the short-term. The company is spending more billions each year on producing original content to keep viewers binging and give them constantly replenishing reasons to come back. Overall, 60 percent of respondents said they have no plans to cancel Netflix, and 18 percent plan on subscribing to both.

But the rise of streaming competitors like Disney+ puts pressure on Netflix across numerous fronts. Netflix added 9.6 million subscribers in Q1 2019, bring its subscriber total to just shy of 150 million. If 14 percent of users did cancel, that's not an insignificant loss.

Netflix is also losing some of its most popular syndicated content to streaming competiors. Shows such as The Office, Friends, and Grey's Anatomy are licensed to Netflix by its three biggest suppliers: NBCUniversal, WarnerMedia, and Disney. As all three gear up to launch their own services, The Wall Street Journal reported that Netflix is negotiating with the media conglomerates to try to keep its popular syndicated programming.

Netflix continues to raise billions in debt financing to bankroll more original shows. For years, the leading streaming platform has been planning for the eventuality that a few years from now, the only content left on Netflix may be the shows and movies Netflix creates itself.

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