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NHL Playoffs expert picks, odds: Bruins and Avalanche look to force Game 7s

BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS - MAY 12: Jakub Lauko #94 of the Boston Bruins checks Aleksander Barkov #16 of the Florida Panthers during the first period in Game Four of the Second Round of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs at the TD Garden on May 12, 2024 in Boston, Massachusetts. The Panthers won 3-2. (Photo by Rich Gagnon/Getty Images)
By Adam Gretz
May 17, 2024

The Boston Bruins are trying to overcome a 3-1 series deficit for the first time in franchise history, and if they are going to do it against the Florida Panthers there are three key players that are going to have to drive that bus.

The first, obviously, is starting goalie Jeremy Swayman. He has been outstanding all postseason and played at a Conn Smythe-level to give them a chance every night. He needs to continue that against a Panthers team that has largely controlled the pace of play in the series.

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The second would be the hopeful return of a healthy Brad Marchand. He has missed the past two-and-a-half games and in the process removed one of their most impactful offensive forwards from the lineup. It is hard to imagine them winning two more games without him, so getting him back would seem to be a must.

Then there is defenseman Charlie McAvoy, the one player they really need to see more from this postseason. He has been the Bruins’ top defenseman for a few years now and finished in the top five of the Norris Trophy voting twice. But he has not played at that level in these playoffs and, if anything, he has been far from it. Entering Game 6 on Friday, the Bruins have been outscored 11-8 with him on the ice during 5-on-5 play, while he has looked shaky with the puck and made a lot of mistakes trying to move the play out of the defensive zone. He has not only looked off, he has at times looked downright bad.

But he came through in an extremely clutch moment in Game 5 of the series on Tuesday night when he scored his first goal of the playoffs – and first playoff goal in more than two years – to put the Bruins ahead and keep their season going. Even without the goal it was one of his better games of the playoffs, and the goal simply added to it. It would be extremely important for the Bruins if that game – and goal – was a jumping off point for McAvoy to get back to being the player they expect him to be.

They are going to need it if they are going to get through this series.

Odds are from BetMGM and update live. Buy tickets to see your favorite team on StubHub.

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Florida Panthers at Boston Bruins — Game 6

How to watch: 7 p.m. ET on TNT, SN

Panthers lead series 3-2

Series odds: Panthers -700, Bruins +500

• After losing a 3-1 series lead to Florida a year ago, the Bruins have a chance to turn the tables on the Panthers this season and do the exact same thing themselves. The Panthers have never blown a 3-1 series lead in franchise history. The Bruins have also never overcome a 3-1 series deficit.

• Despite the Panthers’ lead in the series, Swayman has mostly outplayed Sergei Bobrovsky. At least by the numbers. Swayman enters Game 6 with a .915 save percentage in the series to an .896 mark for Bobrovsky. That is a testament to how well the Florida team in front of Bobrovsky has played in the series.

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• Game 5 was Boston’s best overall game of the series, winning the shot attempt and territorial battle at 5-on-5 for the first time in the series. Its 68 percent expected goal share was also by far its highest of the first five games.

• Brad Marchand’s status for Game 6 remains unknown as he continues to work his way back after he was hit in the head by Sam Bennett in Game 3 of the series. Even though his individual scoring hit a slump prior to the injury, he has still been on the ice for 13 of the Bruins’ 30 goals this postseason despite missing two-plus games.

• Center production remains a problem for the Bruins. Not only have Charlie Coyle and Pavel Zacha combined for just two goals in 12 playoff games, they are among the Bruins’ worst forwards in terms of 5-on-5 expected goal share in the playoffs.


Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche — Game 6

How to watch: 10 p.m. ET on TNT, SN

Stars lead series 3-2

Series odds: Stars -375, Avalanche +300

• The Avalanche remain the highest-scoring team in the NHL this postseason (4.20 goals per game) after leading the league in scoring during the regular season. After Game 5’s five-goal outburst, they have scored four or more goals in seven of their 10 playoff games.

• Game 5 was the first time in the series that the Avalanche played with the lead. They won Game 1 in overtime after trailing or playing tied throughout all of regulation. They have had the lead for just 18:48 of game-time in the second round. That is by far the lowest total of any team in the second round.

• With his two-goal performance in Game 5, Avalanche defenseman Cale Makar is now up to 79 points in 71 career playoff games. That is a 91-point pace over 82 games. For a defenseman.

• Colorado has mostly dictated the pace of play in the series, entering Game 6 with a 53 percent expected goals share. The big difference in the series has been Stars goalie Jake Oettinger, who even with his off night in Game 5 has outplayed Alexandar Georgiev.

• Stars forward Jason Robertson is riding a seven-game goal-less drought, but does have a series-leading seven assists through the first five games.


Picks standings

(Photo of Jakub Lauko and Aleksander Barkov: Rich Gangon / Getty Images)

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Adam Gretz is a freelance sports writer based in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Along with the Athletic, he's written for CBS Sports, NBC Sports, Yardbarker, and SB Nation.