What are the best property valuation tools for commercial real estate?

From a commercial property insurance perspective, underwriters really only care about how much a building will cost to rebuild! Real Estate appraisals and analysis tools are great but typically include cost of the land. From underwriting perspective, it is critical to provide underwriters with age of building, construction type of building, roof type, square footage, and recent updates for roof, electrical, and HVAC. Types of tenants in a building are very important. Many underwriters will not write property coverage for risks with certain tenants. Examples include cannabis exposures, heavy industrial tenants like wood shops, auto body shops, welding exposures, restaurants with heavy grease cooking, and 24 hour operations like gyms.

I'd say cap rates and answering the question will the property appraise? I like to do a lot of background prep work figuring out what it is worth through various sources; -Comps (from many sources, the county is a good one to start with, Costar, MLS, Crexi) -past appraisals, -appraisers who you have a relationship, -tax assessments, -other agents in your office or in your market you work with. It can sometimes be very hard, especially on unique properties. For an investment property the income and expenses set the cap rate. What the seller wants and a buyer will pay at the end of the day is what the property is worth. I do think commercial realtors often have a harder time than appraisers in setting a price as we do not have an AOS.

During my time as Legal Officer in a real estate company, we always used this method to evaluate our properties in the secondary market. Having a clear knowledge of the prevailing market rates, the issues affecting price or that environment will help you navigate sales, perfection of titles and even property transfer.

When it comes to REIT valuation, intrinsic methods such as the Dividend Discount model (DDM) can be a valuable supplement to the commonly used approaches. This is because REITs are required to distribute at least 90% of their profits to shareholders, making DDM a suitable option that discounts all future expected dividends using the cost of equity. Although discounted cash flow analysis (DCF) is a traditional valuation method that can be applied to REITs like any other industry, it's not used as frequently as the NAV approach. Overall, a combination of multiple valuation methods can provide a more comprehensive and accurate picture of a REIT's true value.

“Slapping a cap rate” on NOI aka NOI / cap rate is ok for stabilized property valuation, but isn’t as applicable for heavy value-add properties. That said, this “income approach” is still widely used used by many investors. They compare it to cost of debt to assess if there’s “positive leverage”. For heavier value-add involving floating rate/bridge debt, might not have positive leverage until 12-18 mos while you do capex work, lease-up, re-leasing etc.

Income approach is a very strategic way of analyzing a potential investment on its current state. However, continually following the market lease rates and potential lease rates is a great way to gain value and cap rate potential on any particular property. It isn't as simple as an appraisal or calculation based idea.

Mètodo de càlculo de rentabilidad imprescindible para asesorar al cliente que desea comprar un inmueble para inversiòn, para una correcta evaluaciòn no solo se debe tener en cuenta los ingresos sinò tambien los egresos o costos fijos como, Impuestos Provinciales, Municipales, expensas de consorcio. Segùn mi experiencia.

Income Capitalization Approach is crucial for valuing income-producing properties. It directly relates to how properties generate financial returns, which is primary investor concern. Leaving out aspects as economic, market data, seeing from the perspective of an investor! The approach evaluates property’s potential to produce income, which is the fundamental driver of its value to investors. It helps making well-informed vital decisions about potential acquisitions, dispositions, or refinancing. An accurate cash flow analysis is crucial for assessing long-term investment viability! Assessing risks are essential. Analyzing stability & predictable income streams eg. tenant turnover, market fluctuations, or unexpected maintenance costs.

Cost approach is also known as replacement cost—cost to rebuild a property from ground up + land. Most investors want to buy at going-in price lower than replacement cost. Buying below replacement cost gives “margin of safety” vs new supply. So quantifying replacement cost allows you to quantify “margin of safety”. An exit price < than replacement cost (w/ inflation) is a sanity check. Is exit value reasonable?

Este mètodo de enfoque de costos es dificil de aplicar en zonas urbanas donde existan pocos lotes baldios para comparar y determinar el valor del suelo. Por otro lado en Argentina tenemos distintos valores del dòlar como el oficial y el blue, sumado a la inflaciòn y el costo de construcciòn con valores muy fluctuantes que hacen difìcil su utilizaciòn. Segùn mi experiencia.

The DCF method for evaluating CRE investments can be a valuable tool despite its limitations. This approach involves projecting a property's future cash flows and discounting them at a rate that reflects associated risks. However, this approach is associated with the challenges of accurately forecasting financials and determining an appropriate discount rate. Nonetheless, with careful consideration and expert analysis, the DCF method can still provide insightful information for making informed investment decisions.

For discounted cash flow (DCF) models you’re forecasting multi-year cash flows in Excel &/or ARGUS Enterprise to help back into a present value. It involves applying a discount rate to the cash flow to arrive at present value or purchase price. Some also adjust purchase price to get a hit a certain IRR. Recall that IRR is equal to discount rate where NPV is equal to zero. So given purchase price plus future cash flows w/ certain discount rate gets you same IRR.

Few limitations of DCF method: 1. Discretionary assumptions: Valuers may make different assumptions about cash flow timing, growth rates, & discount rates, leading to varying valuations. 2. Lack of market trend consideration: If not backed by proper market trends & analysis, this method can result in aggressive valuations that don't reflect market realities. 3. Failure to account for cyclicalities: Real estate markets are cyclical, & the DCF method may not adequately factor in these fluctuations, leading to inaccurate valuations. 4. Sensitivity to input variables: Small changes in input variables like discount rates, growth rates, or cash flow assumptions can significantly impact the valuation, making it sensitive to inputs.

When I hear the term automated valuation models (AVM) I really only think of single family homes (owner/users) where this currently applies. Not sure if we’ll ever see AVMs for CRE. Perhaps for single tenant net lease (STNL) deals one day, but value can vary per term, credit, location, backfill risk, etc.

Automated Valuation Models (AVMs) can be applied to a range of property types, including shopping centers and commercial real estate, though their accuracy and utility may vary based on the complexity and specificity of the property. For large and unique assets like shopping centers, AVMs should be complemented with thorough local market analysis and expert appraisals to ensure a comprehensive valuation.

I look at Market Trend Analysis a little differently. We all have to look at trending data in each area/city we live in to make full expectations on potential returns. The trends of any market will dictate a better or worse return on what your current city is doing. In early 2024, there is a need for housing. Multi-family, medium to high density in our area is the key and the backing from the Federal to municipal levels. So no real analysis needs to be done. In simple form. build high to medium density housing, get supported and the long-term prospects of that property will increase in value. The government push for housing will give opportunity, value and prosperity for people willing to take the risk.

If you are a new investor in CRE, the first thing to consider is your level of risk tolerance. Core RE assets are relatively low-risk and offer lower yields. These investments usually involve newer properties in prime locations, high occupancy rates, and tenants with good credit. The Core-Plus investments are similar but slightly more risky and may offer minor upsides in leasing or require small capital improvements. Most people generally associate RE investment with Core-Plus investments. Value-added investments entail higher risk, and potential risks can arise from various factors, such as a substantial lease-up or an older property requiring significant capital improvements. Finally, you can take an opportunistic approach.

In addition to aforementioned concepts, Lease Valuations are my go-to! The value of the leases in place multiplied by an industry average of 8 years will give you a great reference to the bank's evaluation of your commercial property. Some regions it's 10 years of lease term. Again, there are variations but this is a good rule of thumb 👍🏻

What else to consider in any type of investment property. This has so many variables. Two main things to consider is how long are you wanting to hold this investment property? (can you go through some ebs and flows and still come out ok?) and what can I do to increase the value of my investment right away? You always want to look for investment properties big and small that you can turn around, change a dynamic or two within that property to gain profits or value in property for equity refinance or sale for profit. This can do with increasing leases, increasing property value by renovating or both. This will in turn increase NOI and increase your value through your cap rate in your area.

Imho Income Capitalization Approach is crucial for CRE investors because it ties property value directly to income generation, aligns with investment performance metrics, aids risk assessment, and supports informed & practical decision-making regarding: - acquisitions, - financing, - portfolio management. It provides a free from interpretation and clear, quantifiable measure of a property’s ability to generate returns, which is the core objective in most cases!