Should we take the American commitment to a Palestinian state seriously? Skeptics have plenty of arguments to support their case. But prudence dictates that no scenario should be ruled out: Even in the Middle East, where there are many prophets of doom, they are not always right.
The war in Gaza is entering its eighth month. The Israeli war cabinet, under the leadership of Benjamin Netanyahu, has launched an offensive on the southern tip of the Palestinian territory, in part of the city of Rafah. This is much to Washington's displeasure and comes at a time when Hamas says it has accepted a proposal for a provisional ceasefire in exchange for the release of some 30 Israeli hostages and hundreds of Palestinians detained in Israel.
The Israeli prime minister is playing for time. Not satisfied with the proposal, he is stalling. He insists that he wants a "total victory" over the Islamist branch of the Palestinian movement, responsible for the attack of October 7, 2023, in southern Israel, during which some 1,200 people were massacred.
At this stage of a war supported by the United States from the outset, Joe Biden and Netanyahu no longer agree on anything. Opposed to an offensive on the city of Rafah, Washington has reportedly suspended a delivery of munitions to the Israeli army for the first time.
Fleeing intense bombardments – sometimes "indiscriminate," said Biden – more than a million Gazans from the north and center of the territory have taken refuge in Rafah. Many of them are the children and grandchildren of refugees from the 1948 war. According to Hamas, some 35,000 people have died as a result of Israel's campaign. Transformed into a gigantic makeshift camp, with no schools, hospitals or administration, Rafah symbolizes the future of the devastated Gaza Strip: a gradual "Somalization" that is nurturing a new generation of jihadists.
According to the New York Times and the Financial Times, certain Arab states are preparing for the "day after" (the war). The Egyptians, Emiratis and Saudis are considering setting up a peacekeeping force, with the support of the US. The aim would be to ensure the security and reconstruction of Gaza for an interim period, before handing over administration to the Palestinian Authority. But these states, all with pronounced autocratic tendencies, have populations whose radical anti-Israeli sentiments have been exacerbated by the war in Gaza.
They can only commit under one condition, they say: One way or another, Washington must oversee a negotiation designed to lead to the creation of a Palestinian state alongside Israel within a pre-determined timeframe. The parliamentary coalition that keeps Netanyahu in power, which includes the most extreme right-wingers, will never subscribe to such a prospect, unless it completely fails. And that's where the US plays a role, in its talks with Saudi Arabia.
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